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eBook Industry Opinion
Make a note: May 2002 - The B2B e-Book Conference projects eBook industry is in its early stages. Prediction: By 2006 eBooks will outsell print books 4 to 1.
If the Internet was in the "first three innings", as so many Wall Street analysts predicted in the years 1999 and 2000, then The B2B e-Book Conference projects the eBook and Self-Publishing industry and business are now in the "second inning" of a 9 inning game.
What is the basis of our prediction?
Our analysis is predicated on prior industries in the technology world. For a primer, we suggest picking up a copy of Geoffrey A. Moore's "Inside the Tornado", which has been a favorite annual read for the B2B Conference editors for over 5 years.
In it, Moore (no relation to Gordon Moore, former CEO and Chairman of Intel Corp. and namesake for "Moore's Law"), spends considerable text to the concept of what he calls the "technology adoption lifecycle". We have subscribed to his theories since our first introduction to them
in his first book, "Crossing The Chasm".
We believe the ebook and self-publishing business has the same explosive potential that held true for the following industries:
Personal Computers
Video Cassette Recorders
Compact Discs
Local Area Networks
The B2b eBook Conference makes these predictions and forecasts based on the following analysis and research:
- According to a recent Arbitron consumer study, residential broadband adoption has more than doubled in the U.S. during the period from January 2001 to July 2002.
- Recent research from eMarketer indicates the number of worldwide Internet users will stand at 565 million. In the U.S. alone, eMarketer says that 152.8 million Internet users will be online
- Traditional Book Publishers are still disjointed on their ebook content and distribution strategies
- Major Internet book retailers have entered the ebook and e-report selling business
- The appetite of the global population to shorten learning curves on everything from cooking recipes to business processes
- The chronic demands of companies and people to reduce costs
- The "convenience factor" people worldwide are seeking
- Continued rising costs for printed material
- Continued rising costs of distribution and delivery of printed material
- In spite of fragmented channels of online distribution today, ebook and infoproduct sales growth appears to be on a high trajectory
In random and informal surveys of business managers, owners and executives, we find that few are even aware of the ebook phenomena. Functional staff in marketing roles may have a light awareness, but most do not seem to have grasped the ebook opportunity: YET.
Consistent with "Inside the Tornado" theory, which by the way Mr. Moore arrived at by studying the likes of Microsoft, Intel and Cisco (among others), we believe the ebook and infoproducts industry is in what he terms "The Early Market". This market is characterized by Technology Enthusiasts and Visionaries.
In 2002 we believe, the ebook industry is heading toward "The Chasm", whereby a host of volatile market forces swirls around all in an effort to gain market share, revenue growth and industry standards adoption. We believe three key factors are necessary for the ebook industry to move into "The Chasm":
1. The traditional book publishers have yet to fully commit to ebooks due to their fear of cannibalizing their print revenue;
2. When business people awaken to both the opportunity of the sell-side, and of the producer-side of ebooks;
3. When enough credible business experts sell their advice, tips and counsel via ebooks.
When these three things happens, and they will, the market will have moved into "The Chasm".
Once the industry moves
there, eb2b believes there will be a large demand for a variety
of providers from consultants, marketers, infrastructure, distribution
and sales of ebooks and "special reports".
Companies and the people
that work in them will have their eyes opened to that opportunity
as both provider and seller since today's tools and technologies
permit one person to be both.
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